Elena Rybakina Wasn’t Even Sure She Could Play the US Open — Now One More Win Could Make Her World No. 1
NEW YORK — Less than three weeks ago, Elena Rybakina’s US Open campaign looked as though it might end before it even began.
Now she is one victory away from becoming the world’s No. 1 women’s tennis player.
The 27-year-old Kazakh star continued a stunning recovery from a left ankle injury by dismantling former champion Naomi Osaka, 6-1, 6-4, on Monday to reach the US Open quarterfinals for the first time in her career. The match lasted only 66 minutes, with Rybakina racing through the opening set in just 22 minutes.
And the stakes for her next match could hardly be higher.
Rybakina will face Olympic champion Zheng Qinwen in the quarterfinals. According to the WTA's official ranking calculations, reaching the semifinals would guarantee Rybakina the world No. 1 ranking for the first time, regardless of what current No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka or the other contenders do elsewhere in the tournament.
That means the equation is suddenly simple:
Beat Zheng, and Rybakina becomes No. 1.
From Cincinnati injury scare to a breakthrough US Open
The turnaround is remarkable because Rybakina's participation in New York was uncertain until shortly before the tournament.
Her trouble began at the Cincinnati Open on August 20, when she retired while trailing Iga Swiatek 4-1 in their quarterfinal after receiving treatment for her left ankle. Sky Sports reported that Rybakina required a medical timeout before deciding she could not continue.
Days before the US Open, she was still managing the problem carefully. Rybakina said she had experienced pain even while walking immediately after the injury and that her team was evaluating her recovery on a day-to-day basis.
The preparation was far from ideal. Rybakina later revealed that she went seven days without playing and could do little movement work in the gym while recovering.
Yet instead of simply surviving the early rounds at Flushing Meadows, she has surged through the draw without dropping a set.
That is why even Rybakina appears surprised by how quickly the situation changed.
She described the recovery as “amazing progress” after admitting that she and her team initially were not certain she would be able to compete in New York at all.
Osaka had almost nowhere to escape
Against Osaka, any lingering doubts about Rybakina's physical condition disappeared quickly.
The second seed controlled the match from the opening exchanges, using her powerful serve and deep, penetrating groundstrokes to prevent Osaka from establishing the aggressive rhythm that has helped the Japanese star win four Grand Slam titles.
Rybakina converted two of three break opportunities in the opening set and finished it in only 22 minutes. Osaka fought harder in the second but could not prevent Rybakina from earning the decisive break in the seventh game.
Sky Sports analyst Laura Robson described Rybakina's level as extraordinary, noting that Osaka struggled to find any area of the court where she could consistently hurt her opponent.
The final score — 6-1, 6-4 — gave Rybakina her maiden US Open quarterfinal and reinforced her status as one of the leading contenders for the title.
Rybakina already owns two major championships: Wimbledon in 2022 and the 2026 Australian Open. Another title in New York would give her a third Grand Slam trophy, but the ranking milestone could arrive even sooner.
Why one more victory changes everything
The ranking story is more significant than simply Sabalenka holding No. 1 and Rybakina sitting at No. 2.
Sabalenka entered the tournament protecting 2,000 ranking points from her 2025 US Open title, dramatically reducing the effective cushion she carried into New York.
Before the tournament, the WTA calculated that Rybakina had the clearest route to the top among the challengers. Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula also entered New York with mathematical chances, but their scenarios required winning the title and Rybakina failing to reach the semifinals.
Rybakina's path was different.
The WTA stated unequivocally that a semifinal appearance would secure No. 1 regardless of every other result.
She has now reached the quarterfinal.
Only Zheng stands between Rybakina and that milestone.
But Zheng may be the worst possible opponent to underestimate
Calling Rybakina the favorite does not make the quarterfinal straightforward.
Zheng has produced one of the tournament's most dramatic comeback stories.
The Chinese Olympic champion entered the US Open through qualifying after a serious elbow problem and surgery had disrupted her career and sent her ranking tumbling. She has since rediscovered the form that once carried her as high as world No. 4.
Her last two victories have been extraordinary.
Against Madison Keys, Zheng recovered from a huge deficit and survived match point. She then faced Iga Swiatek and fell 0-5 behind in the first set — only to reel off seven consecutive games, win the set 7-5 and ultimately eliminate the six-time Grand Slam champion 7-5, 6-3.
That victory made Zheng the first qualifier to reach the women's US Open quarterfinals since Emma Raducanu's title run in 2021.
So Rybakina is not merely facing a lower-ranked opponent.
She is facing arguably one of the hottest and most resilient players remaining in the draw.
Rybakina knows the danger
Rybakina has acknowledged that Zheng's ranking does not reflect the level she is currently producing.
She pointed to the Chinese star's growing confidence and ability to escape difficult matches, while stressing that their quarterfinal is likely to be considerably tougher than the scoreline against Osaka might suggest.
That caution matters.
Rybakina's game is built around one of women's tennis' most dangerous serves and exceptionally clean first-strike hitting. When she controls the opening shot of rallies, opponents frequently spend points reacting rather than attacking.
But Zheng brings a different challenge: power, athleticism and, judging by her New York run, an unusual ability to remain dangerous even when apparently on the verge of defeat.
New York has finally changed for Rybakina
There is another milestone buried beneath the ranking race.
Until this year, the US Open had been surprisingly unproductive territory for a player of Rybakina's caliber.
She had never reached the quarterfinals in New York.
That has now changed.
Rybakina said her relationship with both the tournament and the city has improved as the victories have accumulated, describing the 2026 campaign as already her best US Open performance.
From uncertainty over whether she could play at all to standing one victory from the summit of women's tennis, her New York fortnight has transformed quickly.
The injury has not entirely disappeared from the story. Neither has the unpredictability of a Grand Slam quarterfinal.
But the calculation no longer requires a spreadsheet.
Rybakina beats Zheng Qinwen, and Elena Rybakina becomes the new world No. 1.
And after what she has already overcome just to reach this point, the bigger question is no longer whether Rybakina recovered in time for the US Open.
It is whether anyone left in New York can stop what that recovery has started.
WWC ONE MEDIA M.J.E